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Hudbay Minerals Set to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
HBM's Q2 revenue projection is at $495.3M, up 16.4% year over year on stronger commodity prices.
Higher gold and copper prices likely offset weaker production from Pampacancha in Peru.
Manitoba Q1 gold output rose 6%, copper 10% and silver 30%, hinting at sustained momentum into Q2.
Hudbay Minerals (HBM - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 13, before market open. HBM is expected to deliver a year-over-year improvement in both its top and bottom lines in the quarter, aided by higher gold and copper prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is currently pegged at $495.3 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 16.4%. The estimate for earnings has moved down 35.3% over the past 60 days to 11 cents per share. Despite this, the consensus mark indicates a solid jump from the break-even earnings reported in the last year’ quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Hudbay Minerals’ Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, while matching in one quarter and missing in the remaining quarter. HBM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for HBM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hudbay Minerals this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: HBM has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Hudbay Minerals’ Q2 Performance
In the first quarter of 2025, HBM produced 30,958 tons of copper and 73,784 ounces of gold. While copper output fell 11% and gold production declined 18% compared with the first quarter of 2024, these results were in line with the company’s internal expectations. Consolidated silver output totaled 919,775 ounces, down 3% year over year, while zinc production fell 29% to 6,265 tons.
The ongoing stripping phase in the high-grade Pampacancha pit has weighed on the company’s production numbers in Peru. However, this setback was partially offset by higher gold production in Manitoba from better-than-expected gold grades.
The Manitoba operations delivered 60,354 ounces of gold, 3,469 tons of copper, 6,265 tons of zinc and 285,603 ounces of silver in the quarter, delivering on targets. Compared with the first quarter of 2024, production of gold was up 6% due to higher grades, copper was up 10% and silver gained 30%. Zinc production, however, was down 29%.
For 2025, Hudbay Minerals’ production guidance calls for 117,000–149,000 tons of copper, 247,500–308,000 ounces of gold, 21,000–27,000 tons of zinc, 3.52–4.39 million ounces of silver and 1,300–1,500 tons of molybdenum. Compared with the 2024 production levels, the midpoint of the copper guidance implies a 4% decline mainly due to lower grades in Peru as Pampacancha depletes by year-end, partially offset by higher production in British Columbia from increased mill throughput and improved grades.
Gold guidance suggests a 16% decline at the midpoint as the accelerated mining of high-grade gold at Pampacancha last year of high-grade gold zones at Lalor in 2024, resulted in both Peru and Manitoba delivering higher numbers in 2024. The zinc and silver guidances suggest year-over-year declines of 16%, 28% and 1%, respectively. The Molybdenum expectations, however, indicate a 6% climb.
These lower volumes are likely to be reflected in the company’s second-quarter results as well.
The quarter also saw operational challenges from wildfires in Manitoba, prompting evacuation orders in Snow Lake, Flin Flon and nearby areas. Although Hudbay Minerals no longer mines in Flin Flon after closing the 777 mine in 2022, it maintains care and maintenance activities there and provides support services for Snow Lake. The company expects temporary reduced production levels in Snow Lake. However, given its strong year-to-date performance, it remains on track to deliver 2025 targets.
In the April-June 2025 period, gold prices averaged around $3.301.42 per ounce, marking a 41% year-over-year increase. Tariff threats, financial uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and solid demand from central banks boosted gold prices. Prices had even reached the $3,500 per-ounce mark for the first time. Silver prices rose 16%. Copper prices also demonstrated strength and the average price was up 5% year over year.
These favorable pricing trends are expected to have helped offset the impact of lower production volumes on HudBay Minerals’ top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, the company’s ongoing effective cost control across all business units is likely to have boosted earnings in the quarter.
HudBay Minerals’ Price Performance & Valuation
HBM shares have gained 19% in the past three months, outpacing the industry’s growth of 17.9%. The company has performed better than its peers, Teck Resources (TECK - Free Report) and ERO Copper (ERO - Free Report) . While Teck Resources has declined 18.5% year to date, Ero Copper has gained 3.5%.
HBM’s Price Performance vs. Industry, Teck Resources & Ero Copper
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HudBay Minerals is currently trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.74 compared with the industry's 1.15.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ERO Copper is a cheaper option, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.61. Teck Resources, however, is trading higher at 2.02.
Investment Thesis on HudBay Minerals
Hudbay Minerals’ diversified copper and gold operations in Peru and Canada provide leverage to strong commodity prices and robust free cash flow. The company is advancing high-return brownfield mill upgrades and greenfield copper projects to drive growth. Copper output is projected to average 144,000 tons annually over the next three years and rise 17% (from 2024 levels) to 161,000 tons by 2027, aided by Copper Mountain optimization. Full ownership of Copper Mountain boosts 2027 attributable output by 200% compared with 2024. Copper World is the highest grade and lowest capital intensity fully permitted copper project in the Americas. Gold production is set to average 253,000 ounces annually, supported by strong Manitoba output.
Should You Buy HBM Stock Now?
Hudbay Minerals is expected to post upbeat second-quarter results, mainly driven by higher gold prices. However, lower production levels for the year due to the depletion of the high-grade Pampacancha deposit in Peru remain a concern. Given the stock’s currently elevated valuation compared with peers, new investors may be better off waiting for a more attractive entry point. Existing shareholders should consider holding the stock to benefit from its robust long-term fundamentals and exposure to gold and base metals.
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Hudbay Minerals Set to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Hudbay Minerals (HBM - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 13, before market open. HBM is expected to deliver a year-over-year improvement in both its top and bottom lines in the quarter, aided by higher gold and copper prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is currently pegged at $495.3 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 16.4%.
The estimate for earnings has moved down 35.3% over the past 60 days to 11 cents per share. Despite this, the consensus mark indicates a solid jump from the break-even earnings reported in the last year’ quarter.
Hudbay Minerals’ Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, while matching in one quarter and missing in the remaining quarter. HBM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50%, on average.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for HBM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hudbay Minerals this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: HBM has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Hudbay Minerals’ Q2 Performance
In the first quarter of 2025, HBM produced 30,958 tons of copper and 73,784 ounces of gold. While copper output fell 11% and gold production declined 18% compared with the first quarter of 2024, these results were in line with the company’s internal expectations. Consolidated silver output totaled 919,775 ounces, down 3% year over year, while zinc production fell 29% to 6,265 tons.
The ongoing stripping phase in the high-grade Pampacancha pit has weighed on the company’s production numbers in Peru. However, this setback was partially offset by higher gold production in Manitoba from better-than-expected gold grades.
The Manitoba operations delivered 60,354 ounces of gold, 3,469 tons of copper, 6,265 tons of zinc and 285,603 ounces of silver in the quarter, delivering on targets. Compared with the first quarter of 2024, production of gold was up 6% due to higher grades, copper was up 10% and silver gained 30%. Zinc production, however, was down 29%.
For 2025, Hudbay Minerals’ production guidance calls for 117,000–149,000 tons of copper, 247,500–308,000 ounces of gold, 21,000–27,000 tons of zinc, 3.52–4.39 million ounces of silver and 1,300–1,500 tons of molybdenum. Compared with the 2024 production levels, the midpoint of the copper guidance implies a 4% decline mainly due to lower grades in Peru as Pampacancha depletes by year-end, partially offset by higher production in British Columbia from increased mill throughput and improved grades.
Gold guidance suggests a 16% decline at the midpoint as the accelerated mining of high-grade gold at Pampacancha last year of high-grade gold zones at Lalor in 2024, resulted in both Peru and Manitoba delivering higher numbers in 2024. The zinc and silver guidances suggest year-over-year declines of 16%, 28% and 1%, respectively. The Molybdenum expectations, however, indicate a 6% climb.
These lower volumes are likely to be reflected in the company’s second-quarter results as well.
The quarter also saw operational challenges from wildfires in Manitoba, prompting evacuation orders in Snow Lake, Flin Flon and nearby areas. Although Hudbay Minerals no longer mines in Flin Flon after closing the 777 mine in 2022, it maintains care and maintenance activities there and provides support services for Snow Lake. The company expects temporary reduced production levels in Snow Lake. However, given its strong year-to-date performance, it remains on track to deliver 2025 targets.
In the April-June 2025 period, gold prices averaged around $3.301.42 per ounce, marking a 41% year-over-year increase. Tariff threats, financial uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and solid demand from central banks boosted gold prices. Prices had even reached the $3,500 per-ounce mark for the first time. Silver prices rose 16%. Copper prices also demonstrated strength and the average price was up 5% year over year.
These favorable pricing trends are expected to have helped offset the impact of lower production volumes on HudBay Minerals’ top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, the company’s ongoing effective cost control across all business units is likely to have boosted earnings in the quarter.
HudBay Minerals’ Price Performance & Valuation
HBM shares have gained 19% in the past three months, outpacing the industry’s growth of 17.9%. The company has performed better than its peers, Teck Resources (TECK - Free Report) and ERO Copper (ERO - Free Report) . While Teck Resources has declined 18.5% year to date, Ero Copper has gained 3.5%.
HBM’s Price Performance vs. Industry, Teck Resources & Ero Copper
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HudBay Minerals is currently trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.74 compared with the industry's 1.15.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ERO Copper is a cheaper option, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.61. Teck Resources, however, is trading higher at 2.02.
Investment Thesis on HudBay Minerals
Hudbay Minerals’ diversified copper and gold operations in Peru and Canada provide leverage to strong commodity prices and robust free cash flow. The company is advancing high-return brownfield mill upgrades and greenfield copper projects to drive growth. Copper output is projected to average 144,000 tons annually over the next three years and rise 17% (from 2024 levels) to 161,000 tons by 2027, aided by Copper Mountain optimization. Full ownership of Copper Mountain boosts 2027 attributable output by 200% compared with 2024. Copper World is the highest grade and lowest capital intensity fully permitted copper project in the Americas. Gold production is set to average 253,000 ounces annually, supported by strong Manitoba output.
Should You Buy HBM Stock Now?
Hudbay Minerals is expected to post upbeat second-quarter results, mainly driven by higher gold prices. However, lower production levels for the year due to the depletion of the high-grade Pampacancha deposit in Peru remain a concern. Given the stock’s currently elevated valuation compared with peers, new investors may be better off waiting for a more attractive entry point. Existing shareholders should consider holding the stock to benefit from its robust long-term fundamentals and exposure to gold and base metals.